Russia will increase electricity exports more gradually in 2022-2026 than in 2021 – by 3-8% annually, according to Alexander Osin, an analyst at Freedom Finance’s Russian stock market trading desk.
Last year’s export growth was estimated to double. According to Boris Kovalchuk, CEO of Inter RAO (the monopoly exporter of Russian electricity), it may grow to 21.5 billion kilowatts per hour, which is a historical maximum. Among the reasons for such growth are increased exports to Finland and the Baltic states, record electricity supplies to China and the return of Georgia to the market.
“We expect a significantly smoother, 3-8% year-on-year average growth in electricity exports from Russia in 2022-2026, in line with long-term trends driven by commodity market dynamics,” said Osin.
Russia will also see an increase in demand for electricity during this period, the analyst believes. According to his expectations, demand may grow by up to 2% in annual terms, with an average growth rate of 0.4% in 2013-2020.